Archive - The Manley Market Memo

The Manley Macro Memo

Did Tariff Negotiations Drive Stocks into a Bear Market?

Apr 24 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

January 2025

The Manley Macro Memo

The S&P 500 is priced for perfection despite potential short-term risks from transitioning to a private sector-driven economy, uncertain tariffs and…

Jan 27 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

October 2024

The Manley Macro Memo

The S&P 500 offers a poor risk-reward since it is extremely overvalued and is no longer a diversified index since the Magnificent Seven mega-cap…

Oct 31, 2024 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

July 2024

The Manley Macro Memo

The S&P 500 is significantly overvalued and is not adequately diversified since 30% of the index is concentrated in six mega-cap technology companies.

Jul 17, 2024 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

April 2024

The Manley Macro Memo

Goldilocks or Stagflation?

Apr 30, 2024 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

January 2024

The Manley Macro Memo

Are six interest rate cuts and 13% earnngs growth realistic?

Jan 31, 2024 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

October 2023

The Manley Macro Memo

We are in a high risk period and stocks offer a poor risk-reward -- especially relative to a 5.5% risk-free rate.

Oct 17, 2023 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

July 2023

The Manley Macro Memo

Investors are ebullient that the Fed has orchestrated a soft landing, yet corporate profits have declined for three consecutive quarters, and the…

Jul 17, 2023 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

April 2023

The Manley Macro Memo

Should Investors Sell in May and Go Away? We believe the economy is on the verge of recession, and the next leg of the Bear Market is imminent.

Apr 25, 2023 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

March 2023

The Manley Macro Memo

Stocks have a poor risk-reward and offer a historically low equity risk premium. A 4.9% risk-free rate is great.

Mar 10, 2023 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

January 2023

The Manley Macro Memo

Wall Street believes the Fed will engineer a "soft landing." Is it probable?

Jan 27, 2023 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

December 2022

The Manley Macro Memo

The S&P 500 rallied 17% higher over the past 8-weeks due to favorable seasonality and positive fund flows. We expect the bear market to resume when the…

Dec 23, 2022 •

J. Lawrence Manley, CFA

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